Key messages
- June and August rainfall improved soil moisture
- To the end August, growing season rainfall (GSR) was average–well above average.
- Stored soil moisture has improved at Burramine, Rutherglen and Culcairn
- Yield potential has improved, but September and October rainfall, frost and heat will remain important to the final outcome.
We've compiled a summary of rainfall and decile data for a number of monitor sites across the Riverine Plains.
The year began with very dry conditions, with January rainfall ranging from lowest on record at Miepoll to decile 2 at Rutherglen. After moderate falls in February, March brought widespread decile 9–10 rainfall, while April was also dry.
Conditions improved from May, with decile 5–10 rainfall also seen in June. July was considerably drier, with rainfall ranging from 29mm at Urana to 60 mm at Rutherglen and deciles between 3 and 7.
August was another high rainfall month. Miepoll and Dookie each received ~75 mm (decile 8), as did Yarrawonga (decile 9), while Rutherglen and Culcairn recorded ~95 mm (decile 10). While drier, Urana received 67 mm (decile 9).
April–August, growing season rainfall ranges from 206 mm at Urana to 353 mm at Rutherglen. Dookie and Urana are at decile 6, Miepoll and Yarrawonga are decile 7, Culcairn is at decile 8 and Rutherglen at decile 9.
Year-to-date rainfall ranges from 309 mm at Urana to 523 mm at Rutherglen. This represents a substantial turnaround from the very dry conditions experienced at the start of 2026.
Figures 1, 2 and 3 show summed soil moisture from 30-140 cm depth at Burramine, Rutherglen and Culcarin respectively (Source: Riverine Plains Weather).
The green lines show summed soil moisture from August 2025 to August 2026, while the aqua line shows the theoretical field capacity (saturation). The red line is the crop lower limit, below which crops struggle to extract water (noting this is a relatively new moisture probe, with upper and lower limits still being confirmed). Rainfall is shown by the dark green columns.
At Burramine, soil moisture improved after March rainfall, increasing again after winter rain. The profile contains more moisture than in autumn, although there remains capacity to store more.
Figure 1 Summed soil moisture at Burramine, August 2025 to August 2026
At Rutherglen, good March, May, June and August rainfall progressively built soil moisture so that at the end of August it was at its highest level in 12 months. Soil probes to 140 cm showed March rainfall infiltrated to 60 cm, while May rains infiltrated to 120 cm.
Figure 2 Summed soil moisture at Rutherglen, August 2025 to August 2026
Soil moisture at the Culcairn site also improved substantially since autumn, supported by strong rainfall in June and August.
Figure 3 Summed soil moisture at Culcairn August 2025 to August 2026
Tables 2 and 3 use the French & Schultz equation with rainfall to date, an evaporation figure of 110 mm and stored soil moisture of 50mm to estimate some potential yields based on a decile 1, 5 and 8 rainfall finish.
For a decile 1 finish from 1 September to 30 October, we’d expect at least 40 mm rainfall at Miepoll, 39 mm at Dookie, 37 mm at Yarrawonga, 48 mm at Rutherglen, 44 mm at Culcairn and 30 mm at Urana, A decile 8 finish would see 141 mm at Miepoll, 134mm at Yarrawonga, 154mm at Culcairn and 118 mm at Urana.
Table 2 Wheat yield potentials for a decile 8, 5 or 1 finish, assuming WUE of 20 kg/ha/mm at 30/8/2026
| Wheat yield potential (t/ha) | ||||||
| WUE 20 | Miepoll | Dookie | Yarrawonga | Rutherglen | Culcairn | Urana |
| Decile 8 | 7.3 | 6.7 | 6.4 | 8.9 | 8.2 | 5.3 |
| Decile 5 | 6.2 | 5.7 | 5.4 | 7.9 | 7.2 | 4.4 |
| Decile 1 | 5.3 | 4.6 | 4.5 | 6.8 | 6.0 | 3.5 |
Decile 8 wheat yields range from 8.9 t/ha at Rutherglen through to 5.3 at Urana. Decile 5 potentials range from 4.4 t/ha (Urana) to 7.9 t/ha (Rutherglen). Decile 1 rainfall would see wheat yields from 3.5 t/ha (Urana), through to 6.8 t/ha (Rutherglen).
For canola, using a WUE of 10, decile 8 potentials range from 2.6 t/ha (Urana) to 4.5 t/ha (Rutherglen). At decile 5, potentials range from 2.2 t/ha (Urana) to 4.0 t/ha (Rutherglen). At decile 1, potentials range from 1.8 t/ha (Urana) to 3.4 t/ha (Rutherglen).
Table 3 Canola yield potential (t/ha) for a decile 8, 5 or 1 finish, assuming a WUE of 10 kg/ha/mm as at 30/8/2026.
| Canola yield potential (t/ha) | ||||||
| WUE 10 | Miepoll | Dookie | Yarrawonga | Rutherglen | Culcairn | Urana |
| Decile 8 | 3.7 | 3.4 | 3.2 | 4.5 | 4.1 | 2.6 |
| Decile 5 | 3.1 | 2.8 | 2.7 | 4.0 | 3.6 | 2.2 |
| Decile 1 | 2.6 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 3.4 | 3.0 | 1.8 |
In summary, there’s variable soil moisture and yield potential across the region. Which yield scenario eventuates depends on the rest of the season, remembering that seasonal forecasts represent chances, not absolutes. Waterlogging in higher rainfall locations may limit yield potential.
This data was collated as part of a project supported by the Victoria Drought Resilience Adoption and Innovation Hub (VicHub), which received funding from the Australian Government’s Future Drought Fund . Riverine Plains is the North East VicHub node lead.