Spring decisions on hay and grain

Key messages

• Use simple measuring methods to gain key data for decision making. 
• Reliable, knowledgeable contractors are essential for good hay outcomes. 
• Consider your storage capacity and ability to maintain hay or grain quality. 

A late start, variable winter rainfall and low soil moisture are likely to challenge crops during grain fill this season. Many paddocks now sit on the fence between cutting for hay or silage and pushing through to grain. The best decision for each paddock depends on timing, market access, crop condition and logistics,  and should be guided by data, not intuition. 

This guide brings together up-to-date, practical advice with clear decision steps, tools and calculators you can use now.

What is happening in the paddock: diagnose & quantify

Walk the crop, don’t decide from the ute. Frost and moisture stress look different across crops and stages, so inspect away from headlands and fence lines. Check areas of different soils types and topography.  Riverine Plains’ note on frost ID note outlines key symptoms such as shrivelled grain and bent stems. 

Measure dry matter (DM) to verify hay or silage yield. Cut a representative sample, record fresh weight, dry thoroughly, then reweigh to determine DM%. Convert this to tonnes of dry matter per hectare (t DM/ha). 
Riverine Plains provides guidance on this process in Frost damage and hay vs grain decisions. Accurate DM measurement underpins reliable gross-margin comparisons. 
(See: How to measure dry matter content.) 

Put numbers around the decision: know your margins

Once you’ve estimated grain yield and DM-based fodder yield, compare margins using: 

When does hay make sense?

• Grain yield potential is clearly reduced. If expected yield is lower than your break even point, running the numbers may favour hay.
• You can meet hay market specs now. Hay value depends on energy, protein, and fibre, not just tonnes.
• Logistics are ready. Success relies on timing and drying, organise mowing, baling, carting and storage. Use wide, shallow windrows or consider tedding to speed up the curing process. Hay preservatives can also be used with caution.
• Chemical withholdings are cleared. Confirm all withholding periods are met before cutting. 

When does grain still stack up?

• Yield and quality remain reasonable, and harvest logistics are sound. 
• Grain storage available
• No hay equipment or storage available- both affect the cost of production and margin.
• Weather risk of hay production - there is always a risk of hay getting rained on which will diminish quality and marketability. 
• Market risk with hay - with new season hay hitting the market there is always a risk that prices will not maintain their current levels. 

Don't forget next year 

Cutting hay or silage removes more N, P, K and S than grain harvest. Update nutrient budgets and plan to rebuild ground cover to avoid erosion. GRDC’s Hay and Silage factsheet highlights this and encourages incorporating dual-purpose or fodder-flex rotations for greater resilience. 

Checklist for crop assessments

• Inspect fields for moisture stress. 
• Sample DM (t DM/ha) for realistic hay/silage yield. 
• Run the  numbers on the hay vs grain calculator.  
• Confirm buyer specs for hay and check weather conditions for drying. 
• Lock in logistics: machinery, storage, transport. 
• Check chemical withholding periods. 
• Monitor weather and act within your window. 
• Plan nutrient replacement and stubble/cover strategy. 

More resources